《大行》中金升國壽(02628.HK)目標價至24.33元 中期盈利符預期
中金發表研究報告指,中國人壽(02628.HK)上半年業績基本符合預期,純利按年增6.9%,對應次季按年跌31.2%,略優於預期;稅前利潤按年降11.5%,符合預期。
該行指,國壽上半年可比口徑/實際披露口徑新業務價值分別按年升20.3%及跌11.5%,可比口徑下個險 NBV按年升9.5%,新業務價值好於該行預期。公司積極推動分紅險轉型,截至 6 月末分紅險保費佔個險首年期交保費比重超50%。上半年國壽CSM(合同服務邊際)較年初升1.6%至7,547億人民幣,主要來自於新業務流入和利率變化;但新業務創造CSM按年跌31%至262億人民幣,該行預計公司 VFA (在IFRS 17會計準則下的「變動收費法」(Variable Fee Approach))合同受到即期利率評估影 響、以及利率下行導致新業務 CSM 按年下滑。
中金維持國壽今明兩年盈測,續予「跑贏行業」評級。考慮到港股流動性改善有助於公司折價收窄,將H股目標價上調24.1%至24.33元。
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