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《大行》里昂升農夫山泉(09633.HK)目標價至55元 重申高度確信「跑贏大市」評級
阿思達克 08-28 14:20
里昂研究報告表示,預計農夫山泉(09633.HK)今年下半年收入增長將較上半年加速,受所有品類較低基數影響,市場份額在水飲品類將進一步復甦。毛利率擴張應在下半年持續,受原材料價格降低及物流成本減少支持。該行相信,農夫山泉強大的產品品質,將支持其向新產品及渠道擴張,將2025至2027年淨利潤預測上調7%至12%,目標價從45港元上調至55港元,重申高度確信「跑贏大市」評級。 該行預計,農夫山泉今年下半年收入按年增長,加速至25%,全年收入按年增長20%至516億元人民幣;水飲市場份額持續復甦,將支持下半年水飲收入按年增長22%,進一步改善至較2023年下半年低8%。 里昂又預測,茶飲收入在今年下半年將加速至按年增長30%,受無糖茶及新產品如冰茶推動,果汁及功能飲料亦將在2025年上半年保持強勁勢頭。 該行相信,支持上半年毛利率擴張的關鍵因素(即原材料價格降低)將在下半年持續,預測下半年毛利率按年改善1.6個百分點,較上半年1.5個百分點略高;亦預計物流費用節省將持續至下半年,支持銷售及管理費用比率持續下降;下半年淨利潤按年增長31%,全年淨利潤按年增長26%至153億元人民幣。
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