《大行》大摩上調李寧(02231.HK)目標價至25元 稱實際盈利表現受非現金支出掩蓋
摩根士丹利指,見到李寧(02331.HK)盈利率復甦高可能性成為未來數年主要盈利增長動力,其銷售增長仍視乎中國宏觀環境,該行因而作出保守假設,但其防守性取態及集中於核心應導致未來的經營槓桿。該行認為看淡李寧的投資者,更集中於近期趨勢及不喜歡公司落後同業的增長、品牌單一與欠缺如戶外產品等快增長類別,疲弱宏觀及劇烈競爭令其品牌更難與同業區別。
該行在李寧近期股價上升後維持對該股「增持」評級,目標價由22元上調至25元。該行不認為李寧報告淨利潤為其現金利潤,因公司主動清理過往的資產及改善現金流,截至今年上半年的兩年內,公司累計非現金支出12億元人民幣,上半年佔4.07億元人民幣,且因不能減稅導致實際稅率高至33%。該行估算公司上半年經調整淨利潤為21億元人民幣,高於報告的淨利潤,且有約6%增長。中期核心經營溢利勝預期反映廣告及推廣、員工及租金的更佳控制,該行料員工及租金成本比率將向下,部分基於公司早前主動關稅虧損門店。
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