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《大行》高盛:HIBOR回升符預期 銀行股中僅籲買入匯控(00005.HK)
高盛研究報告指,本港1個月銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)自5月以來首次觸及2%。8月至今的平均值約為1.1%,而6月及7月平均值分別為0.7%及1%。該行料8月及9月的平均值將達1.3%及1.6%,而第三及第四季的平均值分別為1.3%及2.3%,相較於首季及次季為3.9%及2%。該行指,HIBOR的上行趨勢基本符合預期。 報告指,隨著HIBOR正常化,與美息的差距縮窄,該行預計下半年本地銀行淨息差將會最疲弱,但淨利息收入、總收入及撥備前利潤(PPOP)將自2026上半年開始復甦,因預期HIBOR平均值將於2026至27年間回升至2%至2.5%。 該行表示,雖然5月以來HIBOR下行侵蝕銀行淨息差,但香港銀行股價仍具韌性。市場似乎已消化HIBOR較低的利好因素,包括手續費收入增加、信貸成本下降及貸款需求復甦。該行維持選擇性策略,僅予匯豐控股(00005.HK)「買入」評級,目標價110元;同時予東亞(00023.HK)「沽售」評級,目標價10.5元。
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