《大行》大華繼顯升騰訊音樂(01698.HK)目標價至105元 次季盈利超預期
阿思達克 08-13 11:36
大華繼顯研究報告指出，騰訊音樂(01698.HK)2025年第二季表現強勁，收入及淨利均超該行預期。收入按年增長17.9%至84億元人民幣(下同)，高於市場預期6%。非公認會計準則(Non-GAAP)營運利潤按年增長31.4%至32億元，營運利潤率按年上升4個百分點至38%。Non-GAAP淨利潤按年增長33%至26億元，超市場預期16%，淨利潤率按年擴大4個百分點至31%。該行維持對騰訊音樂「買入」評級，目標價從85港元上調至105港元，基於預測2026年市盈率26倍，與同行一致。
該行表示，騰訊音樂預期訂閱和廣告的穩健增長將持續至2025年下半年。此外，新增收入增長動力將來自豐富的內容，包括演出、線下演唱會、粉絲經濟和藝人周邊商品。
該行又預測，騰訊音樂2025年訂閱收入按年增長15.7%，主要受持續內容升級及超級VIP(SVIP)滲透率提升帶動的強大定價能力推動。管理層的長期目標維持不變，為1.5億訂閱者，每月每付費用戶平均收入(ARPPU)達15元人民幣。同時，騰訊音樂將專注於優化收入分成比例以提升毛利率，特別是在核心線上音樂服務，通過客戶獲取效率提升及研發成本逐步簡化實現進一步效率提升。為實現策略擴展，收購喜馬拉雅27億元人民幣的交易，為短期內用戶基礎擴展及付費轉化率提升增添動力。雖然喜馬拉雅於2025年第二季尚未合併，但預計其對月活躍用戶(MAU)及月付費用戶(MPU)的影響將從第三季起顯現。
大華繼顯將2025年第三季、2025年全年收入預估分別上調2%、3%，意味按年收入分別增長12%、13%，並將2025年第三季、2025年全年非公認會計準則淨利潤預測分別上調7%、8%，意味按年增長分別33%及22%，淨利潤率料各約31%、31%，因該行預期第三季持續盈利增長及社交娛樂業務更精簡。該行又看好公司於2025年下半年的創新增長動力及其抗週期特性。
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