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《大行》瑞銀:騰訊(00700.HK)可受惠AI技術革新及閉環生態完善新增長動能所帶動
瑞銀發表中國互聯網行業報告表示,據最新中國市場第二季及後續廣告動向的訊息,內地整體廣告市場表現較預期稍微疲弱,但AI相關的廣告利益逐漸顯現。中國線上廣告在第二季料按年增長約12%,雖然高於整體消費增速,但低於行業專家先前預期,主要因貿易不確定性影響商戶對廣告投放的信心。第三季預期增長進一步放緩至約8%,原因包括基數高、快消電商補貼影響廣告預算流向,以及快速消費品和汽車行業的廣告情緒低迷。 該行指行業領域中,短劇、迷你遊戲、本地服務、金融科技、學習硬件和3C電子產品等出現亮點,但汽車、電商和應用遊戲類廣告則相對疲弱。AI技術帶來的廣告效益開始顯現,不僅包括內容生成,也涵蓋整個廣告周期的策略制定、流量獲取及後期效果評估,平均提升點擊率及轉化率5%至15%,推動廣告價格年增中高個位數。AI降本增效吸引更多廣告預算,該行指騰訊(00700.HK)和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)在這方面進展顯著,快手-W(01024.HK)基於其AI內容生成技術上也處於領先位置。 瑞銀指,廣告與電商生態系統更加閉環,如微信小商店、抖音、快手及嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)等平台,閉環交易的廣告價格是外部廣告的約1.5倍,良好的用戶商業交易數據累積,有助於更精細的用戶畫像及長期增長。 該行指騰訊方面,其搜索業務日活躍用戶保持增長,微信搜索帶來新廣告收入及用戶意圖洞察,小程序及小商店發展推動閉環生態。AI廣告技術升級提升匹配精準度及用戶黏性,增值服務廣告載量預計年底達4.5%至5%,長期增長空間穩健。 推薦股份方面,該行的行業首選仍然是騰訊(核心推薦),並認為快手和嗶哩嗶哩在後續表現中相對優勢,騰訊尤具多重長期增長動能,因為預計其將憑藉搜索、小程序及增值服務、廣告技術的提升,以及搜索與閉環生態系統的進一步發展令其表現可優於同業。 瑞銀料中國今年廣告市場按年升10.2%,線上廣告按年升10.7%,料騰訊今年廣告按年增長17%,估阿里巴巴及字節跳動訊今年廣告按年各升6.3%及14.4%、料快手今年廣告按年增長14%,估嗶哩嗶哩今年廣告按年增18.2%。
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