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《大行》匯豐研究降中移動(00941.HK)目標價至108元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 08-11 11:56
匯豐環球研究發表報告,認為中移動(00941.HK)(600941.SH)在雲業務收入強勁增長、雲服務規模效應帶動EBITDA利潤率擴張,以及資本開支強度降低的推動下,具備連續多年的股息增長潛力。該行亦相信,家庭寬頻、雲業務及數據中心(IDC)收入的穩健增長將抵消消費端移動業務收入的下降。因此,該行預計2024-2027年EBITDA年複合增長率及每股股息年複合增長率分別約為1.5%和5.7%。該行下調中移動2025至2027年收入預測1%至2%,並下調2026至2027年淨利潤預測。此調整導致H股和A股目標價分別下調2.7%和5.4%,H股目標價由111港元下調至108港元;A股目標價由148元人民幣下調至140元人民幣。該行維持對H股和A股的「買入」評級。按最新目標價計算,2025年H股和A股的預期股息收益率分別為5.2%和3.6%。 匯豐研究表示,中移動第二季度總收入按年下降1.1%(較該行的預估及市場共識低約3%),但服務收入按年增長0.1%。產品銷售拖累總收入,但因其為不穩定、超低利潤的項目,影響較小。2025年上半年,消費端收入按年下降約4%,低於預期,主因移動業務平均每戶收入(ARPU)受宏觀經濟挑戰及市場飽和影響按年下降2.9%。然而,2025年上半年家庭寬頻收入和雲業務收入分別按年增長9.3%和11.3%。第二季度EBITDA利潤率提升0.8個百分點至37.6%,帶動EBITDA按年增長1%。管理層表示,中國政府鼓勵國有企業集中於電信基礎設施部署大型語言模型(LLM),意味著從混合雲向公有雲的遷移。該行認為這是利潤率改善的關鍵驅動因素。第二季度淨利潤按年增長6%,較該行的預估高1%,主要受折舊與攤銷(D&A)成本下降及一次性收入(如其他收益)強勁增長推動。2025年上半年股息按年增長5.8%,高於淨利潤5%的增長。
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