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《大行》中銀國際:金管局「接錢」料對港股影響較小 恆指年底目標27,500
中銀國際發表中國市場報告,香港股票市場流動性持續充裕,今年以來交易額上升。截至今年8月6日,港股平均每日成交額達2,433億港元,遠高於去年同期的1,085億港元及2024年全年的1,318億港元。恆生指數及恆生科技指數分別上升24.18%及23.81%。 近幾週香港金融市場流動性有所下降,但對港股的影響應有限。該行注意到,自今年6月起,香港銀行同業拆借利率(HIBOR)顯著下降,擴大了港元與美元的利率差距,曾觸發港元兌美元7.85的弱方兌換保證。因此,金融管理局自6月26日起開始賣出美元、買入港元。截至今年7月31日香港銀行系統總結餘降至866億港元。金管局在8月(截至8月6日)進一步賣出約140億港元的美元兌換港幣,導致銀行系統總結餘於2025年8月6日降至725億港元,但仍高於2025年5月2日的446億港元。同時,HIBOR隔夜利率於8月6日達到0.14%,較5月2日的4.22%大幅下降。該行認為,金管局賣出美元兌換港元對香港股市的影響較小,因這些資金主要風險偏好較低,專注於高利率存款。 中銀國際指,香港股市流動性仍然充裕,2025年7月平均每日成交額達2,629億港元,按年增長167%。截至8月6日,8月至今的平均每日成交額達2,335億港元,仍處於歷史高位。該行預測恆生指數將於今年12月底達到27,500點,相當於今年預測市盈率12.3倍,較過去20年平均預測市盈率溢價5%。南向交易今年以來錄得8,332億元人民幣的淨流入,按年增長109.8%。 該行計,今年下半年內地投資者通過南向交易對香港上市股票的強勁需求將持續,主要得益於高質量科技/高端製造股票的選擇、港股的估值吸引及股息收益率較高。中銀國際預測2025年內地-香港南向交易淨流入將達1.2萬億元人民幣,高於2024年的7,440億元人民幣及2023年的2,894億元人民幣。 南向投資者關注內地互聯網、電訊和半導體行業,該行建議投資者密切關注南向交易中一些活躍交易的股票,包括阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)、美團-W(03690.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、中移動(00941.HK)、中芯(00981.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)。(wl/u) ~
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