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《大行》華泰證券看好理想(02015.HK)i8上市 維持「買入」評級 目標價139.49元
華泰證券研究報告指出,理想汽車(02015.HK)i8正式上市,3款配置售價分別為32.18萬、34.98萬、36.98萬元人民幣,Pro版和Max版售價與L8同版本的指導價相同,Ultra版較L8 Ultra版便宜1萬元人民幣。該行看好i8搭載VLA模型、標配5C超充、寬敞舒適的座艙體驗,對純電車i8和i6(預計9月上市)上市的銷量表現展望樂觀,VLA模型上車後,公司的輔助駕駛能力有望維持國內第一梯隊水平。 華泰證券認為,i8核心優勢包括大空間、舒適、高安全、智能,長續航(670/720km)和快補能(標配5C電池)是i8的優勢,充足的超充站保證用戶好的補能體驗。截至7月29日,公司第3,000座5C超充站達成,已超特斯(TSLA.US)國內超充數量(超過2,000座),實現全國省級行政區全覆蓋、四線及以上城市全連通。華泰證券認為,在「10分鐘充電生活圈」的構建與拓展下,超充網絡的不斷佈局有望解決純電汽車用戶的續航和補能焦慮,為後續i系列矩陣擴容打開銷量的天花板。 華泰證券維持此前預測,預計理想汽車2025至2027年一般公認會計原則(GAAP)歸母淨利分別103億、158億、178億元人民幣,非通用會計準則(Non GAAP)淨利潤分別為130億、186億、208億元人民幣。 華泰證券選取吉利汽車(00175.HK)、比亞迪股份(01211.HK)和賽力斯(601127.SH)為可比公司,可比公司平均2025預測市盈率17倍,考慮到理想汽車的VLA上車進展更快,超充網絡佈局更完善(可進一步支持雙能矩陣發展),給予理想估值溢價,維持給予2025年市盈率21倍。考慮到匯率波動,華泰證券微調理想汽車目標價為139.49港元(前值140.34港元),維持「買入」評級。
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