《大行》瑞銀料美進口商品加權平均關稅率或升至18%以上 市場未重視風險 但重申「增持」中國市場等
美國總統特朗普簽署行政命令修改了對數十個國家的對等關稅,瑞銀髮表亞太區市場報告表示,料美國進口商品的加權平均關稅率可能升至18%以上(相較於特朗普2.0之前的少於2.5%),這是九十二年以來所未見的水平。值得注意的是,美國進口商品中受相關關稅影響的比例仍低於50%(較所謂「解放日」(今年4月2日)前低於30%有所上升)。當針對第232條豁免行業的關稅宣佈時,以及全球低價免稅額取消的影響難以量化時,這些數字可能進一步上升。
該行指從過去三個月,美國海關從進口關稅獲得的收入顯着增長(截至6月,年度化增加約2,200億美元),但已有早期跡象顯示關稅正在影響美國CPI。目前出口商似乎尚未承擔關稅負擔,但他們可能在吸收美元疲軟的大部分影響。
瑞銀認爲市場至今未重視關稅風險,自3月31日起,美國市場務收入佔比高(定義爲25%或以上)的新興市場股票預期盈利僅下調約2.5%至3%,而無美國收入敞口的股票預期則基本持平。在4月新興市場和亞太區研究團隊的壓力測試中,美國業務敞口較大公司的預期每股盈利預測中位數下調約18%。
瑞銀表示,上半年企業業績數據整體溫和。然而,企業對前景的評論正在變化,可能在下半年表現爲盈利壓力。MSCI新興市場指數13%的收入來自美國,另有20%是對其他市場的出口(在全球緊密聯繫的供應鏈下均易受影響)。關稅驅動的市場選擇框架中的兩個主題。該框架尋求國內敞口較高、美國敞口較低的防禦性強的市場。該行看好中國(包括所有中概股、H股、MSCI中國指數中的A股)、巴西、印尼、馬來西亞和菲律賓市場,MSCI新興市場和亞洲(撇除日本)指數至2026年目標預測分別潛在各有7%和8%的上行空間,該行予香港市場股份「中性」評級。
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