《大行》里昂:內地育兒補貼金額有限但支持明確 伊利股份(600887.SH)H&H(01112.HK)飛鶴(06186.HK)評級維持「跑贏大市」
里昂發表報告指出,國務院辦公廳最新發布的0至3歲嬰幼兒每人每年3,600元人民幣補貼方案,雖金額有限但明確釋出政策支持生育的信號。此舉符合市場預期,該行解讀其政策意圖更側重於提振消費(約佔零售總額0.2%)而非直接刺激生育,不過短期內仍可望對新生兒數量產生有限度的正面影響。這項補貼措施實質上是監管部門針對持續下滑的出生率,以及減輕家庭生育養育壓力所做出的政策回應。
就嬰幼兒配方奶粉行業而言,市場規模與新生兒數量密切相關。根據該行的渠道調查數據顯示,受益於2024年新生兒數量的短暫回升,2025年前五個月的市場規模已呈現按年大致持平的態勢,相較2024年中單位數的跌幅有所改善。目前行業觀察重點在於競爭態勢變化,特別是領先本土企業持續推動的補貼政策所帶來的影響。在該行的研究覆蓋範圍內,伊利股份(600887.SH)展現出良好的增長動能,市場份額持續提升;H&H國際(01112.HK)在超高端細分市場的市佔率也有所回升;而中國飛鶴(06186.HK)的短期觀察重點則在於渠道庫存去化進程與零售價格管控成效。該行對伊利、H&H和飛鶴均維持「跑贏大市」的投資評級,目標價分別為33元人民幣、13.5港元及6港元。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.