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《大行》花旗:匯控(00005.HK)上季經調整稅前利潤超預期10% 年度貸款損失比率指引略上調
花旗發表報告表示,匯豐控股(00005.HK)第二季度基本稅前利潤(不含特殊項目)達92億美元,較市場共識高10%,當中的收入較預期高5%、成本符合預期,以及減值損失較預期差12%。收入超預期來自銀行淨利息收入(高出2%)和非利息收入(高出13%)。列賬稅前利潤爲63億美元,較市場共識低9%,主要因交通銀行(03328.HK)20億美元的減值費用超出預期,但對資本影響輕微。 截至6月底,匯控核心一級資本比率爲14.6%,按季下降10個基點,但符合市場共識,季度股息和回購計劃維持不變,分別爲10美仙和30億美元。2025年全年指引基本不變,但貸款損失比率指引略爲上調。總體而言:基礎業績穩健,財富管理業務表現尤爲強勁,策略持續成型,成本節約和業務簡化成效顯着。該行對倫敦上市的匯控(HSBA.L)重申「買入」評級及目標價10.1英鎊。 該行表示,減值損失達11億美元(貸款損失比率44個基點),較市場共識差12%,其中包括與香港商業地產(CRE)相關減值損失的4億美元。香港商業地產(目前降至319億美元,其中85億美元被評爲次級或已減值,預期信用損失(ECL)爲9億美元。 花旗指匯控維持2025年全年指引,包括全年銀行淨利息收入指引約420億美元、經調整成本增長率爲3%,意味成本約333億美元,貸款損失比率約40個基點,貸款增長預計在中期至長期爲中單位數,但2025年增長將較爲溫和。 該行指看淡匯控的投資者或會指出股本回報率(RoTE)指引未變,但監於2025年上半年調整後RoTE達18.2%,該行認爲銀行應能輕鬆達到14-16%目標範圍的上限(相較共識預期15.5%)。因此,這些業績應足以推動每股盈利共識預期出現低單位數的上調。
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