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《大行》招商證券國際料毛戈平(01318.HK)邁向長期增長 首予「增持」評級
阿思達克 07-29 10:33
招商證券國際發表研究報告指出,預計毛戈平(01318.HK)在明星產品驅動下,其收入將從2024年39億元人民幣(下同)增長至2027年98億元人民幣,實現36%的年均複合增長率(CAGR),主要受益於明星單品的成熟放量及各業務板塊間的協同效應。 該行認為,毛戈平的護膚品業務預計將以43.5%的CAGR增長,佔總收入比重提升至42.8%。其中,魚子醬面膜與黑霜預計2025年合計銷售額達12億元,2027年進一步增長至23億元,佔護膚品收入的65%。香氛業務預計到2027年貢獻5.6億元,佔總收入的6%。線下渠道預計以26.2%的CAGR增長,年淨增約40個專櫃(至2027年增加到498個);同時,單店坪效提升至630萬元,依托高端護城河與高接觸式服務,滿足穩定消費需求。線上渠道預計以46.4%的CAGR增長,佔比提升至56.8%,通過擴大覆蓋範圍與明星單品帶動高投資回報率。 該行表示,毛戈平護膚品業務的增長抵銷線上渠道帶來的壓力,整體毛利率預計維持在83%至84%。淨利率預計為22.5%,三年淨利潤CAGR達35.1%,顯著高於行業平均的20%以上,對2025至2027年淨利潤預測比市場預期高出3%至8%。 招商證券國際首次覆蓋毛戈平,給予「增持」評級,目標價為102.4港元,基於2026年中期預測市盈率38.5倍。該行指出,若毛戈平複製雅詩蘭黛(EL.US)的發展路徑,在未來完成區域性品牌收購並建立泛亞洲高端定位,有望進一步提升估值至50倍市盈率水平,從而更好地支持其護膚品業務佔比與利潤率表現。
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