《大行》美銀證券升恆生銀行(00011.HK)目標價至102元 料中期利潤按年跌16%
美銀證券發表研究報告指,預計恆生銀行(00011.HK)上半年收入平穩,達204億元;淨利息收入減少將被非利息收入增長大致抵銷,然而,其信用成本或按年翻倍,導致期內淨利潤按年下降16%至83億港元,並將2025至2027年盈測下調0至3%。
該行提到,由於恆生銀行的不良貸款覆蓋率較低,預計其2025財年信用成本預測爲70個基點,而2026至2027年則爲60個基點。不過,在HIBOR大幅下降及香港房地產市場消除極端風險後,將股本成本下調75個基點至9%。因此,該行將恆生目標價由92.5元上調10%至102元,重申「跑輸大市」評級。
該行預期,恆生銀行上半年淨息差將較去年下半年下降13個基點至1.99%,而淨利息收入將按年跌6%,這主要是由於去年下半年聯儲局減息以及自今年5月以來HIBOR急劇下跌。該行預測手續費收入將按年增長20%,而其他非利息收入則升19%。又預期不良貸款規模和不良貸款比率將分別進一步上升至535億元及6.4%。該行預計,恆生銀行今年或再進行30億元回購,但相信較難維持穩定派息。
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