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《大行》大和:大宗商品牛市 料短期內利好鋰、多晶矽及煤炭
大和發表研究報告指,多種商品期貨價格普遍上漲,包括焦炭、工業矽、鋰和多晶矽。考慮到供應控制政策的預期以及中國在宣佈於西藏建設世界最大水電項目後,對基礎設施需求的增加,認爲中國上遊大宗商品期貨價格將在短期內呈上升趨勢,從而支撐多晶矽和鋰業公司的股價。 該行預計,動力煤價格將在短期內反彈最多10%,予中國神華(01088.HK)「持有」評級。另外,該行認爲,中國政府強烈阻止上遊材料出現通縮的決心,將在短期內支持材料的銷售均價。然而,由於全球光伏需求或在明年下降,該行認爲多晶矽的均價不會持續反彈。對於鋰,該行相信,如果沒有強勁的歐盟或美國電動車和能源儲存系統需求增長,今明兩年的鋰價將較難上升。
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