《大行》野村料網易(09999.HK)利潤率或持續改善 升目標價至242元
野村發表研究報告,指儘管相信網易-S(09999.HK)(NTES.US)線上遊戲業務保持健康,但市場在今年首季強勁表現後,可能對第二季預期表現過於樂觀。該行料網易次季收入和non-GAAP每股盈利分別按年增長9%和24%,較市場預期分別低出2.4%和1%。
報告表示,網易次季線上遊戲及增值服務業務的收入預計按年增長12%,低於市場預期的17% 按年增長。野村預測,因兩款新遊戲《漫威爭鋒》和《燕雲十六聲》的正常化表現,其次季PC遊戲收入增長按年增長將放緩至62%(首季按年增85%)。移動遊戲收入預計繼續復甦,2025年第二季按年下降2%,相較於首季跌4%有所改善。野村預計移動遊戲收入在今年下半年將轉為正增長(按年增長 4%)。
此外,野村預期網易利潤率或持續改善,料其次季毛利率(GPM)按年提高0.7個百分點至63.6%,主要得益於非遊戲業務的毛利率可能擴大。該行料其次季營運利潤率按年擴大4個百分點至35.7%,受持續的營運槓桿推動。野村相信網易將繼續強調行銷效率的提升。此外,野村認為,第二季是一個相對平靜的季度,新遊戲推出較少,因此預測次季的行銷費用按年下降約10%。
該行對該股重申「買入」評級,並基於分類加總估值法(SOTP)計,將H股目標價由原先233元上調至242元,因野村將估值基準延展至2026年。新目標價對應預測2026年市盈率17 倍(之前為16倍),考慮到2026年更強的遊戲產品線,包括兩款前景看好的自研新遊戲《遺忘之海》和《無限大》。
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