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《大行》中金看好泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)中長期成長 目標價升至330元 維持「跑贏行業」評級
阿思達克 07-17 10:01
中金發表研究報告指,泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)公布今年上半年盈利預喜,預計收入按年增長不低於200%,期內溢利(不包括未完成統計的金融工具的公允價值變動損益)按年增不低於350%,超市場預期。中金認為,該公司業績增長主要來自IP全球認可度進一步提升,產品品類多元化,各區域市場收入均高速增長;海外收入佔比提升,區域結構變化對毛利率、淨利率均產生積極影響,規模效應亦提升;持續優化產品成本,加強費用管控,提升盈利能力。 中金又認為,泡泡瑪特以IP為核心的集團化推進,看好其中長期成長空間。今年上半年公司IP產品LABUBU熱度持續走高,在全球範圍內快速「出圈」,進一步驗證公司通過品類創新、設計優化、營運賦能等方式與IP共同成長的能力,在面對第二季二手交易價格走高的情況,公司亦採取打擊黃牛、隨機放貨等方式有力控制價盤、貨盤,助力IP以更加健康的生命曲線成長。 展望後續,中金認為對比樂高等玩具龍頭,公司目前海外市場門店空間仍廣,整體處於店效、店數雙升的向上擴張期。同時在多元業務方面,飾品正店已於6月在北京、上海開出,影視業務方面據天眼查顯示,公司已登記《LABUBU與朋友們》動畫劇集第一季劇本V1作品著作權,看好公司通過多元業務拓展進一步豐富IP內容、延長IP生命周期。 考慮到上述因素,中金上調該公司2025、2026年經調整淨利潤預測30%、30%至 97.3億、123.5億元人民幣,現價對應2025、2026年34.6倍和26.8倍經調整市盈率。綜合考慮盈利預測調整和新消費板塊估值逐步消化,中金上調泡泡瑪特目標價6.5%至330港元,對應2025、2026年43.4倍、33.5倍經調整市盈率,較周二收市價263.2港元有25%上行空間,維持「跑贏行業」評級。
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