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研報掘金丨中金:維持中際旭創“跑贏行業”評級,業績預告高於市場預期

中金公司研報指出,中際旭創預計2025年上半年整體實現歸母淨利潤36-44億元,同比增長52.64%-86.57%;2Q25歸母淨利潤預計爲20.17-28.17億元,同比增長50%-109%,歸母淨利潤預告區間中值對應2Q25 單季度24.17億元,同比/環比分別增長79%/53%。公司業績預告高於市場預期,判斷主要由於高速光模塊放量節奏超預期、公司盈利能力改善超預期所致。考慮到公司盈利能力有望持續改善、海外AI硬件需求韌性的超預期表現,上修2025/26年盈利預測22%/38%至95.65/124.59億元,當前股價對應2025/26 年20.3/15.6倍P/E。由於2026年需求能見度逐漸清晰,估值窗口切換至2026年,綜合考慮盈利調整和行業估值中樞上移,基於2026年18倍P/E上調目標價90%至202元,對應16%上行空間。維持“跑贏行業”評級。

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