You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行》交銀國際:看好創新藥板塊 選股至關重要 料內地商保創新藥目錄落地或爲相關支付長期呈數十倍增長
交銀國際表報告表示,就港股創新藥板塊估值是否已有泡沫?該行認爲,本輪港股創新藥行情核心驅動力是價值重估,當前估值仍具吸引力:(1)龍頭創新藥企的前瞻12個月市銷率與熊市以來的歷史均值基本持平,雖略高於美股可比公司、但營收增長預期亦遠高於後者;(2)收入達峯時的市銷率對於創新藥企長期潛力更有指導意義,目前港股龍頭在3倍左右,低於美股平均的4倍,個別公司僅有2倍左右;(3)今年上半年內資持續通過港股通加倉,但外資在創新藥中的倉位處於底部,後者可能偏好基本面?實、性價比顯着的標的。 該行表示,依舊看好創新藥板塊整體繼續修復的機會,但反彈後的選股至關重要。創新藥出海未來如何演變?該行觀察到創新藥出海有以下重要的趨勢:(1)行業進一步衍生出了NewCo(特定交易目的而新設的公司)等新型交易模式,並快速發揚光大;(2)ADC(抗體藥物複合體)賽道交易興趣度最高,雙抗/多抗、小核酸/mRNA等前沿技術領域亦存在較多機會,中長期關注老齡化驅動+海外支付條件優異的自免、代謝慢病和顯着差異化優勢的下一代技術路徑。基於當前國產創新藥資產儲備豐富且交易性價比仍顯着、跨國藥企(MNC)存在專利懸崖的補缺需求、海外投融資邊際改善,該行認爲今年下半年至2026年出海交易熱度仍將延續。 交銀國際提到,內地商保創新藥目錄即將落地,有望帶來怎樣的增量貢獻?首個由商保參與制定的創新藥目錄有望於2025年內推出,旨在納入超出基本醫保保障範圍的品種,有望創造比醫保談判更寬鬆的定價環境,並在掛網、入院、特例單議機制等方面享受和醫保目錄相似的待遇。商業健康險未來增量空間值得期待,長期內保費和創新藥支付規模有望呈數十倍增長。 反彈後如何選股?交銀國際表示考慮到具體公司間在股價表現、盈利/業務進展預期及當前估值水平差異較大,該行優選中長期基本面穩健、短期催化劑相對豐富、估值仍有較大上升空間的標的,在生物科技和創新型處方藥板塊中重點推薦康方生物(09926.HK)、先聲藥業(02096.HK)、傳奇生物(LEGN.US)、和黃醫藥(00013.HK)、德琪醫藥-B(06996.HK)。 交銀國際指,全球醫療健康領域投融資在經歷2021年的歷史性高點(全年融資額超3,000億美元)後進入下行週期。自2024年起,行業迎來關鍵轉折點:2024年,海外醫療健康投融資事件數雖按年減少17%,但投融資總額卻按年增加9%至508億美元,資金向高估值、後期項目集中的趨勢顯着;2025年1月全球單月融資額衝高至80億美元,創下過去三年單月融資額新高。中國內地市場也同步顯現復甦信號:2025年上半年二級市場醫藥板塊估值快速修復形成明確拐點,顯着提振投資者風險偏好,進而傳導至一級市場交易活躍度提升。今年上半年中國內地融資總額按年反彈至41億美元,已超越2024全年融資總額的56%。 該行預計今年下半年開始,隨着美國降息週期的開啓,疊加創新藥企現金流改善及多項政策紅利釋放,二級市場復甦對一級市場的正反饋效應將進一步增強,持續提升市場資金風險偏好、強化生物科技企業的融資能力,催化創新資產的價值重估。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account