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《大行》里昂:次季智能手機市場銷售可觀 看好瑞聲(02018.HK)舜宇(02382.HK)小米(01810.HK)等
里昂發表研究報告,指2025年第二季智能手機市場銷售表現可觀,出貨量在持續的宏觀挑戰和關稅波動下按年增1%。iPhone出貨量在2025年第二季年增1.5%,達到4,640萬台,新興市場的強勁雙位數增長抵消了中國市場1%的下降。2025年上半年iPhone出貨量年增6%,達到1.04億台。里昂認為關稅不確定性已大致反映在個股價格中,蘋果(AAPL.US)供應鏈的估值看起來具有吸引力。里昂看好智能手機供應鏈中的瑞聲科技(02018.HK)、舜宇光學科技(02382.HK)、小米-W(01810.HK)和立訊精密(002475.SZ)。 里昂表示,根據市場研究機構IDC的初步數據,2025年第二季全球智能手機出貨量年增1%,達到2.952億台,實現自2023年第三季以來連續八個季度增長。此外,里昂認為,經濟不確定性傾向於壓縮安卓市場低端需求,這部分市場對價格最敏感,消費者在此市場中將智能手機的支出優次降低。 報告又指出,因補貼未能刺激需求,2025年第二季中國智能手機出貨量下降。雖然618電商節在賣出方面表現成功,但原始設備製造商(OEM)和渠道合作夥伴利用促銷活動清庫存,而非增加出貨量。 手機方面,蘋果在2025年第二季出貨量按年增1.5%,達到4,640萬台,全球市場份額基本穩定在15.7%;並注意到蘋果在618促銷期間為第一品牌。儘管中國市場出貨量年減1%,但新興市場的強勁雙位數增長抵消了這一影響,推動蘋果在2025年第二季全球增長1.5%。 小米在2025年第二季出貨量年增0.6%,達到4,250萬台,全球市場份額基本穩定在14.4%。 三星在2025年第二季出貨量年增7.9%,達到5,800萬台,全球市場份額年增1.3個百分點至19.7%,受其新款Galaxy A36和A56產品的銷售推動,這些產品為中端設備引入了人工智能功能。 里昂對智能手機供應鏈相關股票的投資評級及目標價表列如下: 股份|投資評級|目標價(港元) 瑞聲(02018.HK)|高度確信跑贏大市|66.1元 立訊精密(002475.SZ)|跑贏大市|44.1元人民幣 三星電子(005930.KS)|跑贏大市|73,000韓圜 舜宇(02382.HK)|跑贏大市|88.7元 小米-W(01810.HK)|高度確信跑贏大市|69元
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