《大行》高盛下調代工行業銷售利潤預測 籲買入申洲國際(02313.HK)等
高盛研究報告指,將部分覆蓋的代工企業(OEM)2025至2027年銷售及淨利潤預測平均下調3%及8%,以反映對訂單及利潤率壓力更謹慎的觀點。儘管美國宏觀數據展示出韌性,但該行認為行業短期環境更趨疲軟,競爭加劇、關稅可能帶來額外成本壓力,以及連帶影響如提前備貨及促銷增加等。近期的關稅進展對OEM影響好壞參半,由價值鏈分攤關稅的風險仍然存在。該行估算關稅分攤每增加1個百分點,可能導致OEM全年淨利潤下行0至2%,並令2026年淨利潤平均下行1至6%。但從正面而言,關稅及需求不確定性可能加速行業整合,利好龍頭OEM。
股份方面,該行將申洲國際(02313.HK)目標價由77元降至71元,裕元集團(00551.HK)目標價由15.9元降至14元,九興控股(01836.HK)目標價不變為18元,並重申對上述股份的「買入」評級,因其客戶與地域分布多元、估值具吸引力且股息率較佳。
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