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《大行》高盛輕微上調中國今明兩年實質GDP增長預測 料今年下半年增速放慢至4.3%
阿思達克 07-16 11:15
高盛發表研究報告,指中國次季GDP略高於市場預期,但符合該行預期。在中美貿易戰「休戰」後,出口增速加快帶動下,化學品、電腦及相關設備製造業產量增長提速,令6月業生產增長顯著回升。而固定資產投資增長則明顯放緩,各領域普遍疲軟,部分因極端天氣影響及房地產市場持續低迷。6月零售銷售增長亦顯著下滑,因今年618網購節較往年提前,令部分需求提前至5月,加上一些地區消費品以舊換新計劃的資金短缺。服務業產出指數按年表現相對穩健,僅溫和放緩。 近期宏觀數據顯示,在中美貿易衝突背景下,出口表現較預期更具韌性,但國內需求在政策溫和支持下仍顯得疲弱。部分結構性挑戰依然存在,包括房地產市場持續低迷、產能過剩、部分工業領域通縮壓力未減,以及民營部門信心疲弱,有待政策進一步發力。 該行最新將2025及26全年實質GDP增長預測分別上調至4.7%及3.9%,原先為4.6%及3.8%,現預期中國實質GDP增速將從上半年的5.3%降至下半年的4.3%,主要受美國加徵關稅衝擊及高基數影響(特別是第四季)。考慮到上半年實質GDP增長仍然穩健,該行認為當局短期內沒有急迫性去推出大規模刺激政策,或將採漸進式、針對性的寬鬆措施,以緩解樓市下行壓力與下半年的勞動市場挑戰。
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