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《大行》花旗升恆生(00011.HK)評級至「買入」 上調中銀(02388.HK)東亞(00023.HK)目標價
花旗表示,香港銀行板塊年初至今已上漲37%,表現優於恆生指數,其中以中銀香港(02388.HK)的漲勢最爲強勁,主要受惠於南下資金追逐高股息標的的強勁買盤。雖然近期香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)下滑可能對淨息差構成壓力,但該行預期隨着HIBOR在2025年第四季逐步迴歸正常水平,銀行業的盈利能力將有所改善。中期來看,儘管聯準會降息可能對淨息差帶來挑戰,但該行認爲影響可控,因香港多數按揭貸款仍受最優惠利率上限保護,且市場預期聯邦基金利率最終將維持在3%水平。香港商業地產風險短期內可能持續,但市場共識已反映信用成本上升的預期。此外,香港銀行業資本充足率處於歷史高位,爲提高股東回報提供更佳可見度。基於上述分析,該行將恆生(00011.HK)的評級從「中性」上調至「買入」,同時維持對中銀香港的「買入」評級,而東亞銀行(00023.HK)則保持「中性」評級。 花旗表示,香港銀行業短期面臨同業拆息下滑的壓力,但預期下半年將迎來複蘇。由於香港金管局在5月初港元兌美元觸及強方兌換保證水平時進行幹預,一個月期HIBOR在第二季較上季下跌186個基點。目前一個月期HIBOR維持在約1%水平,這可能對香港銀行第二至第三季的淨息差構成壓力。然而,隨着港元兌美元匯率轉弱至兌換保證區間的下限,金管局爲維持聯繫匯率制度而進行的幹預措施,有望縮窄港美利率差距。根據花旗的利率策略師預測,HIBOR將回升至2%至3%區間,這將有助於銀行業在2025年第四季實現淨息差的復甦。 花旗將恆生評級上調至「買入」,主要基於三項關鍵因素:首先,市場共識已充分反映2025至2027年間平均50個基點的信用成本預期;其次,該行截至2025年第一季的核心一級資本充足率(CET1)高達21%,爲資本回報提供更佳能見度,預期2025至2027財年可維持約6%的股息收益率,並於2026至2027財年執行30億港元股份回購;第三,相較市場預期,該行對2026至2027財年營收預測高出4%,主要來自更具韌性的淨利息收入表現。據此將目標價從105港元上調至135港元。同時維持對中銀香港的「買入」評級,並將目標價從33.9港元調升至40.8港元,因其營收前景穩健且資產質量穩定,加上南下資金對回報要求較低,有望推動該股持續獲得估值重估。東亞目標價由11元調升至11.6元。
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