《大行》花旗微降頤海(01579.HK)目標價至13.4元 料上半年業績持平
花旗發表報告,指近期與頤海國際(01579.HK)進行交流,預期2025年上半年收入及純利將持平。雖然第三方銷售預計可實現個位數增長,但將被關聯方銷售下滑所抵消,整體營收料維持平穩。由於產品組合變動及價格競爭加劇,第三方業務毛利率可能面臨壓力。儘管基本面表現平淡,但當前估值水平尚屬合理,相當於預測市盈率15.6倍且股息率達5.7%。維持「中性」評級。
基於第三方及關聯方銷售預期下調,該行將頤海2025至2027年收入預測下調3%至7%。營業利潤率微幅下調的影響被有效稅率降低所抵消,故淨利潤調整幅度控制在正負1%以內。因自由現金流及匯率預測微調,以現金流折現率計,目標價由13.7港元小幅下調至13.4港元。
瑞銀預期,受季節性因素帶動,頤海2025年下半年收入增速有望較上半年改善。然而,在銷售組合不利及價格競爭持續的影響下,毛利率壓力或將延續。值得關注的是,由於境內向境外資本分配的一次性預扣稅因素,預測有效稅率將從2024年下半年的35%降至2025年下半年的28%。因此,預期淨利潤率將小幅改善,帶動下半年淨利潤實現高個位數增長。
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