《大行》高盛籲「增持」中國市場 料MSCI中國指數潛在升14% 看好精選民企及人工智能等主題股份
高盛發表亞太區市場報告表示,對中國市場「增持」評級,預期MSCI中國指數目標未來12個月目標85點,相於預測市盈率11.6倍,將有14%的上行空間,基於2025及2026年的每股盈利增長9%,主題包括精選民營企業、股東回報、具有新興市場收入的全球競爭力公司,以及人工智能和消費領域的特定投資。
對於A股,高盛將滬深300指數目標從4,600點下調至4,400點,因盈利增長放緩且估值更為保守(市盈率14.5倍),但仍保持建設性看法,理由包括:1)15%的美元計的總回報,2)正面的監管變化,3)有利的流動性和政策環境,4)分散化優勢以及吸引人的結構化機會。
該行對香港評級上調至「與大市同步」,因盈利增長改善(2025及2026年為8%及6%,此前為6%及5%),受資本和房地產市場活動改善推動。這個對利率敏感的經濟和股市,部分受益於HIBOR大幅下降(從4%降至1%),因香港金管局向銀行系統注入流動性以維持港幣在兌換區間內。該行予MSCI香港指數未來12個月目標14,700點(目前處13,731點),相於預測市盈率13.7倍。
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