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仲量聯行料全年整體寫字樓租金跌約5% IPO活躍帶動租賃活動
阿思達克 07-09 16:03
仲量聯行發表中期市場回顧及預測。該行研究部資深董事鍾楚如表示,寫字樓和酒店投資預計亦將受惠於新的學生宿舍政策。由於業主願意減租,商鋪市場的租賃活動將保持活躍,但由於新供應持續增加,優質商場的空置率將繼續創新高。 對於寫字樓市場,仲量聯行港商業部主管郭禮言表示,上半年寫字樓市場氣氛好轉,位於核心地段的優質寫字樓租賃交投和洽商活動持續增加,尤其是中環。 IPO活動的增加刺激律師事務所和金融相關服務公司對核心地段辦公空間的需求。由於新股市場預期將於今年下半年持續活躍,仲量聯行相信這趨勢將支持寫字樓市場的需求增長,中環某些商廈的租金亦將於今年稍後時間回穩,走勢較其他理想。 郭禮言預期中環優質商廈的租金將於今年底回穩,主要由於租戶對地標式商廈的興趣不減。在競爭日益激烈的環境下,主要租戶利用先發優勢,在新項目落成前數年進行磋商。他預期今年下半年的租務活動將有所改善。然而,由於市場仍不乏新供應和可出租樓面,空置率仍將居高不下。今年整體寫字樓租金仍將處於下行週期,預料全年將下跌約5%。 商鋪方面,仲量聯行香港商鋪部資深董事陳永慧表示,今年上半年,餐廳結業爲市場焦點之一。仲量聯行數據顯示,截至6月底,核心區街鋪空置率維持在10.5%,而優質商場的空置率上升至10.5%的新高,主要原因是新供應增加及現有商場新增的空置樓面。 陳永慧指,核心購物區的租賃交投仍然活躍。面對市況挑戰持續及零售商對成本更謹慎,普遍業主尤其街鋪業主爲吸引租戶,更願意在租賃條款上妥協,包括在續約或籤新租約時提供更長的免租期。租金持續調整及租賃策略改變,有利零售商獲得更優惠的租賃條款,以及國際品牌進駐香港。 她補充,展望下半年,即將竣工的新零售空間達到約60萬平方尺,對優質商場的空置率造成上行壓力。她預計今年核心區街鋪及優質商場的租金將下降5至10%。 對於資本市場,仲量聯行香港資本市場部主管陳國章表示,雖然關稅對貿易的實際影響仍有待反映,但在市況波動及不明朗的市況下,投資者對工業物業的興趣進一步受到遏抑。 他相信,銀行收緊融資和環球局勢不明朗等不利因素,將持續影響今年下半年的物業投資市場。這些因素將促使投資者對商業地產市場抱警惕及謹慎態度,令用家將繼續成爲商業地產投資市場的主要買家。政府可把握此機會,以折扣價購入優質物業。考慮到目前的財政赤字問題,此舉長遠有助減少政府的租金支出。 展望未來,由於IPO市場表現活躍,將帶動寫字樓租賃活動,有望吸引投資者重投寫字樓投資市場。另外,最新的商廈改建爲專用學生宿舍政策將吸引更多大學吸納酒店和乙、丙級寫字樓。
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