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《大行》中金上調蜜雪集團(02097.HK)目標價至555元 維持「跑贏行業」評級
阿思達克 07-02 16:30
中金公司研究報告指,預計在相對穩定消費環境和更豐富產品升級或推新(如升級供應鏈技術以提供口感更新鮮的產品等)帶動下,蜜雪集團(02097.HK)國內同店增長及開店有望維持穩健較快表現(2025年同店增速有望好於24年的1%左右水平),此外蜜雪積極開拓海外新市場,如公司計劃25年在巴西開出首家門店、未來建設供應鏈工廠以實現本地化產銷閉環,3月28日宣布正式開放日本加盟。 報告續指,公司持續提升幸運咖產品創新和品牌影響力,今年以來保持較快簽約速度,截至6月27日全國簽約門店突破6,000家。未來3至5年,公司宣布在巴西採購包括咖啡豆等農產品在內的不低於40億元的物資,有望支撐咖啡等產品供應。考慮供應鏈能力支撐和優秀的加盟商盈利能力,中金預計公司即使基於與加盟商互利共贏的長期策略而在物料銷售方面有一定讓利,今年毛利率在去年高基數基礎上按年回落幅度或相對有限。 考慮國內同店和開店趨勢向好,中金分別上調蜜雪集團2025至2026年歸母淨利潤預測7%、7%至54.5億、65.1億元人民幣。當前股價分別對應2025至2026年33、28倍市盈率,維持「跑贏行業」評級。考慮公司較強利潤掌控度和進入港股通的催化,上調目標價18%至555港元,分別對應2025、2026年36、30倍市盈率。
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