研報掘金丨海通國際:維持山西汾酒“優於大市”評級,目標價210元
海通國際研報指出,消費結構加速轉型,政策影響短空長多。當前白酒行業仍處於供需再平衡階段,由量價齊升轉向以價補量。15-23年,山西汾酒總營收/歸母淨利潤複合增速分別爲29.1%/45.5%,穩居白酒行業增速領先地位。24年正式鎖定行業營收前三。25年作爲汾酒復興綱領第二階段的開局之年,公司以“穩健壓倒一切”爲總基調,淡化增速目標,強化盈利質量。通過玻汾控量、老白汾上量、青花20放量、青花26/30增量的四輪驅動策略,實現全價格帶覆蓋和市場的縱深突破。盈利能力領跑行業,現金流表現整體強勁。省內持續鞏固基本盤,省外2.0縱深突破。參考可比公司估值水平,同時考慮公司產品、區域分佈相對均衡,業績增長穩健,給予公司25年20xPE,目標價210元,維持“優於大市”評級。
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