渣打:恆指未來12個月目標25,500點
渣打財富方案首席投資辦公室預計,特朗普政府將在第三季與主要合作夥伴達成初步貿易協議,並通過一項適度刺激的預算。另外,美國關稅升至1938年來最高,或拖慢經濟推高通脹,惟就業轉差,聯儲局未來12個月或減息75個基點,分別是今年底前減兩次,明年上半年再減一次,每次25點子。
該行指,核心配置黃金,如中東局勢區定,黃金短期內上行空間有限,但仍是重要對沖工具,12個月目標維持3,500美元。而美國十年期債息未來6至12個月或見4至4.25厘,如貿易、通脹或財政憂慮升溫或短暫見4.8至5厘。
渣打北亞區投資總監鄭子豐表示,中東緊張局勢緩和,加上中美同意貿易框架細節,建議超配環球股票,看好亞洲(日本以外)地區,當中尤其偏好中國及南韓股票,中國股票方面相對看好離岸股市,未來12個月,恆生指數有望挑戰該行基本情境預測24,000至26,000點區間中的較高水平,恆指未來12個月目標25,500點。如果內地進一步加強財政和貨幣刺激措施,並且在扭轉物價疲弱方面取得進展,可能推動大市上試樂觀情境預測26,000至28,000點。
他提到,港股目前面臨的下行風險包括中東地緣政治風險未明朗,美國關稅、通脹、債務或赤字相關的擔憂可能加劇。
對於多隻港股有新消費股禁售期將在7月初至9月完結,他認為不會帶大衝擊,相信未來幾個月投資者會關注這些股票基本面轉變,再決定進一步倉位配置。
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