《大行》高盛:原油重大供應中斷概率已大幅下降 市場料秋季將出現大量庫存累積
高盛發表報告指,近期油價回歸中東以伊緊張局勢前的水平,布蘭特原油價格回落至每桶60多美元,地緣政治風險溢價從高點約每桶15美元降至不足每桶1美元。該行指,原油重大供應中斷如霍爾木茲海峽關閉的概率已大幅下降,地緣政治風險溢價已快速回落。期權市場數據亦顯示,交易員認為短期內發生重大供應中斷的風險極低。
根據期權市場數據,布蘭特原油價格到年底超過每桶90美元的概率,代表著重大供應中斷的可能性,從最高約15%降至低於4%,回到6月初的低水平。市場預計至2025年9月布蘭特價格有60%概率維持在60美元區間,超過70美元的概率為28%。上週末,超過70美元的概率曾短暫飆升至55%,但最可能價格仍為60多美元,顯示市場對供應穩定的信心。
高盛指,地緣政治風險溢價的快速回落主要因為過去地緣政治衝擊未導致顯著供應中斷,降低交易員對類似風險的擔憂。同時,伊朗對美國導彈行動的回應溫和,隨後的停火公告進一步緩解緊張局勢。另外,美國和中國均有強烈動機避免油市大規模中斷,以穩定全球經濟。庫存預期方面,市場預計秋季將出現大量庫存累積,減少對供應短缺的擔憂,抑制市場參與者押注油價上漲的意願。
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