《大行》美銀證券升老鋪黃金(06181.HK)評級至「買入」 目標價上調至999元
美銀證券發表研究報告指,儘管老鋪黃金(06181.HK)次季起至今股價累跌約5%。其表現不及「新消費」同行(平均上漲10%)和黃金珠寶同行周大福(01929.HK)或六福集團(00590.HK)(分別上漲43%和26%),料受投資者對本月下旬逾1.4億股禁售期屆滿憂慮所影響,但相信未來多個利好因素或扭轉劣勢。美銀將老鋪目標價由原先932元上調7%至999元,分別上調2025及2026財年淨利潤預測21%和15%至45億元和62億元人民幣,同時將目標市盈率下調至預測今年35倍(原先為40倍),大致與「新消費」同行一致。評級由「中性」升至「買入」。
美銀認為老鋪黃金有以下利好因素,其一是加快開店速度及銷售勢頭強勁。美銀指,老鋪黃金今年至今已開設4家精品店,計劃2025年共開設8家,超該行原先預測,其中前日(21日)開幕的新加坡門店吸引大量客流。此外,今年至今線上銷售表現強勁下,該行預期黃金價格上漲(根據該行預測,未來12個月可能達到每安士4,000美元)、老鋪黃金的創新產品推出及品牌知名度提升,將繼續推動老鋪黃金的的銷量穩健增長,促進市場滲透。
此外,美銀預測老鋪黃金今年6月28日將迎來大規模限售股解禁,23%的股份將可出售。雖然低於先前預期,該行預期限售股解禁後,預計自由流通股本可能會更健康,從而擴大老鋪黃金投資者基礎,降低波動性並提升價格發現。美銀還預期海外投資興趣增加及「新消費」類股之間的輪動將帶來有利資金流。
最後,美銀認為,在近期股價回落後,老鋪黃金的風險回報比具吸引力。儘管其盈利增長更快,但老鋪黃金的估值極具吸引力,目前2025和2026財年市盈率的估值分別為29倍、21倍的,較「新消費」同行平均36倍、26倍的市盈率分別折讓19%及18%。隨著禁售期即將到期,美銀認為任何價格下跌均為良好的入場時機。
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