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法興料美聯儲基本情境下今年減息兩次
阿思達克 06-23 15:08
法興銀行發表下半年展望,基本情境為預期聯儲局今年將減息兩次,並在2026年中前減息100個基點。由於市場預期有節制但穩定的減息步伐以支持經濟,兩年期國債收益率應在2026年中前穩步降至3.25%,十年期國債收益率收益率降至4%。 另外,該行預計,關稅對中國經濟影響預計將於下半年逐步顯現,並在明年更為明顯,預測中國今年GDP增長率4.6%。股票配置方面,該行予中國和南韓市場「增持」評級。 外匯方面,該行到2025年第三季,歐元兌美元匯率為1.16,第四季略回升至1.17,然後在明年首季和次季升至1.20。美元兌人民幣匯率第四季重上7.1左右,明年第二季見6.9。而日圓兌美元匯率可能在第四季升至139。
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