《大行》中銀國際:「618」消費強勁超預期 但可持續性或令人擔憂
中銀國際表示,今年「618」購物節總銷售額達8,556億元人民幣,按年增長15.2%,超出該行的預期。
該行預計,京東(09618.HK)2025年第二季的商品交易總額(GMV)將按年增長12%左右(5月份按年增長15%左右,5至6月合計按年增長12%左右,原因是5月份由於618提前,消費前置),使其成為增長最快的平台,這得益於其在家用電器和3C電子產品等以舊換新品類中的領先地位,以及通過外賣帶來的交叉銷售。
考慮到電商平台競爭激烈,該行在互聯網服務板塊中的中國互聯網平台排名順序保持不變,仍為騰訊(00700.HK)>京東>阿里巴巴(09988.HK)>美團(03690.HK)>拼多多(PDD.US)。鑑於近期部分地區宣布用完國家補貼,電商平台消費增速可能出現環比放緩,該行繼續推薦防禦性更強的子板塊。
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