《大行》交銀國際首次覆蓋三生製藥(01530.HK) 予「買入」評級 目標價27元
交銀國際研究報告指,三生製藥(01530.HK)核心大單品長期空間可觀,創新研發成果即將集中落地,首予該股「買入」評級,目標價27元,對應20.7倍2025年市盈率(剔除707 BD首付款影響)和1.4倍2025年市盈增長率。
該行指,三生製藥存量核心品種競爭格局良好,後續銷售表現有望持續超預期,旗下的注射液「特比澳」為目前全球唯一獲批CIT適應症的特異性升板藥物,看好其持續替代IL-11類競品的潛力。同時,中短期內仿製藥上市可能性較小,定價壓力有限,預計三生製藥2024至2026年產品銷售年均複合增長率(CAGR)有望達到11%,長期銷售高峰將達70億元。
交銀國際預計,三生製藥旗下的防脫生髮產品「蔓迪」銷售高峰可達25億元,主要由於:1)中國內地脫髮人群規模持續增長且年輕化;2)線上加線下協同營銷不斷強化品牌認知,新劑型、新包裝和周邊產品持續完善。此外,公司引進的柯拉特龍乳膏劑Winlevi(R)(痤瘡)和司美格魯(月太)(減重)有望於2至3年內上市,借助蔓迪的品牌效應和渠道優勢,上市後快速放量可期。
該行表示,三生製藥於今年首季度,公司30個在研產品中有12款已經或有望於2025至2027年在中國內地上市。2025年5月,公司與輝瑞就自研的PD-1/VEGF雙抗SSGJ-707達成授權協議,交易總金額最高可達60.5億美元,居於同類榜首。交銀國際給予三生製藥首次覆蓋給予「買入」評級。
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