《大行》花旗:若伊朗石油出口中斷 油價或升15%至20%
花旗發表研究報告指,伊朗與以色列戰事升級,引發市場對中東局勢不穩期間及過後石油供應與運輸或中斷的擔憂。回顧自1990年波斯灣戰爭以來六次主要地緣政治危機對石油供應的干擾,花旗目前預期,以5月出口量為基準,若伊朗110萬桶的日均出口量中斷,油價或被推高約15%至20%,至約75至78美元區間,對比局勢升級前即6月12日布油月均價格為約65美元。
花旗又指,當前市場價格已反映伊朗供應中斷及伊朗當局封鎖霍爾木茲海峽的機率,認為任何海峽的封閉均可能導致油價劇烈波動,不過各國正致力斡旋,因此相信出現運輸渠道封閉數月的可能性不大。
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