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《大行》花旗列出國際油價今年第二季至第四季預測(表)
花旗發表第三季商品展望報告,該行的基本(base)情景認為,地緣政治緊張局勢將使油價保持堅挺,但原油供應受到影響的可能性較低。假設油價供應不受地緣政治緊張影響,那麼隨著OPEC+持續增產,未來幾個月油價應會下跌。雖然不能排除更大規模衝突的可能性,但影響原油供應的機率應較低,因為此對伊朗或美國都不利。在2025年第二季度僅剩半個月的情況下,布蘭特原油價格應平均為每桶67美元。假設油價供應未受干擾,第三季度布布蘭特原油價格應下滑至每桶67美元,而假設已包含地緣政治風險溢價。 牛市情景(30%概率)下,若伊朗因制裁和中東局勢升級導致每日100萬桶原油以上的損失,且能源基礎設施受到打擊,而OPEC+維持減產,油價可能飆升至每桶90美元以上,但隨著OPEC+及其他供應增加,油價隨後可能回落。 花旗指,以色列對伊朗的軍事打擊使布倫特原油盤中高點達到每桶78.5美元,該行認為,能源流動的中斷應該會受到限制。地緣政治緊張局勢可能持續存在,但該行預計能源價格不會長期維持高位。 該行列出國際油價預測: (1)布蘭特原油價格-基本情境預測(每桶) 今年第二季│今年第三季│今年第四季│2025年全年 67美元│66美元│63美元│68美元 (2)布蘭特原油價格-熊市情境預測(每桶) 今年第二季│今年第三季│今年第四季│2025年全年 57美元│50美元│45美元│57美元 (3)布蘭特原油價格-牛市情境預測(每桶) 今年第二季│今年第三季│今年第四季│2025年全年 90美元│80美元│75美元│80美元 ---------------------------------------------- (4)美國WTI(西德克薩斯)原油-基本情境預測(每桶) 今年第二季│今年第三季│今年第四季│2025年全年 63美元│63美元│60美元│65美元
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