《大行》中金料京東及美團第二季盈利下調幅度最明顯 暑期茶飲咖啡銷售旺季補貼持續
美團(03690.HK)半日股價下滑3.7%,京東(09618.HK)股價亦走低1.1%。中金發表內地線上交易平台行業報告,內地今年首季交易平台收入及利潤端表現分化,主要電商平台受國補、貨幣化率變化和海外業務擾動影響收入利潤均分化,美團(03690.HK0)收入及利潤均超該行預期。該行認為短期電商在即時零售投入和海外關稅的影響下利潤壓力較大,中長期看好電商平台受AI驅動的變現率提升,以及美團在即時配送領域較強的競爭壁壘。
該行預測2025年電商GMV大盤按年增12%。去年下半年開始多家平台從「絕對低價」轉向聚焦平台優勢領域,國補政策刺激為行業帶來新增量,該行認為短期部分省份國補暫停對大趨勢影響有限,國補對以自營及品牌旗艦店為主的電商平台帶來更明顯的拉動效應。步入今年下半年,受到高基數影響,中金預計全年GMV大盤按年增速呈現前高後低。
競爭再起,中短期交易平台的盈利預測都面臨普遍的下調壓力。為了孵化即時零售的物流履約體系、用戶認知以及消費習慣,多家平台均在外賣和即時零售領域同步投入,規模均達百億元人民幣以上量級,希望通過高頻餐飲品類拉動較低頻的實物即時性消費。其中該行預計京東、美團或在今年第二季的盈利下調幅度最為明顯,且大概率在暑期的茶飲咖啡銷售旺季持續補貼。
中長期來看,電商平台佈局外賣更多是期望未來反哺主站的用戶活躍及即時零售用戶認知,其可持續性需觀察後補貼時代的生態協同效果。外賣領域長期競爭本質是效率之戰,補貼收縮、抽佣合理是常態,美團憑藉成熟的高效調度與規模效應,競爭壁壘依然明顯,大概率無需過度擔憂競爭壓力。該行認為,即時零售預計難以顛覆電商格局,為「快」而犧牲「省」的需求僅適用於特定場景和人群。多方入局共同提升了市場認知度,降低了教育成本,長遠看有助於建立消費者「即時滿足」認知。
拼多多(PDD.US)並未參與外賣競爭,但補齊國補短板和千億人民幣扶持計劃導致國內利潤承壓,短期投入換長期空間。中金測算其國內GMV及收入依舊穩健,通過同步推進變現工具的疊代,下半年主站收入按年增速有望逐步上行。該行認為,讓利商家、扶持生態以及關稅政策變化下的商業模式調整對短期利潤有直接影響,但往後看,隨著國補影響逐漸退坡,更優的商家生態培育有望幫助拼多多持續在電商行業中獲得份額,打開長期增長空間。
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