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中信建投:稀土出口或迎積極信號,國內上漲收斂內外價差
中信建投研報表示,自4月我國實行部分稀土出口管制以來,4月稀土永磁出口量環比下降50%以上,創下近5年稀土永磁出口數據的歷史新低,含有鏑鋱等元素的稀土磁材是新能源車驅動電機的關鍵材料,海外多家車企宣告原料庫存緊張。近期商務部迴應,對符合規定的稀土出口許可申請中方將予以批準。受出口或逐步放鬆預期影響,市場上調稀土原料報價。參考此前國內鍺、鎵、銻等出口管制金屬價格走勢,多數金屬在出口管制後初期價格下跌或持穩,海外價格快速上漲,隨着出口許可發放,金屬出口逐步恢復,國內價格錨定海外高價明顯上漲,內外價差收斂以國內上漲方式進行。因此,後續稀土出口管制放鬆或對價格上漲呈助推作用,稀土板塊迎估值提升之後再迎利潤增厚雙擊。
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