《大行》華泰證券升泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)目標價至300元 維持「買入」評級
華泰證券發表研究報告指出,面對Labubu等IP熱度飆升,泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)明確堅持IP長期營運的策略思路,嚴格把控推新、聯名及產品放量節奏,避免對IP價值的消耗。該行認為,泡泡瑪特優勢在於IP設計、品類載體與行銷活動的多重創新與聯動,而非依賴單一要素,進而支撐經典IP的可持續營運。該行預計,泡泡瑪特在今年暑期《The Monsters》動畫短片有望上線,並看好管理層掌控IP營運節奏、傳達藝術理念,在全球打造多款經典長青IP的能力。
該行指,泡泡瑪特通過優質設計,加上中國供應鏈實現「藝術平權」,並通過社交媒體實現IP在全球的話題聯動,驅動IP在全球現象級傳播。該行統計5月海外粉絲數逾1,200萬人,按年增超250%,按月雙位數增長,其中北美、歐洲分別按月增逾27%和60%,破圈趨勢明顯。此外,歐美市場為現階段發展重心,同時中東地區兩家新店已在規劃中,隨著歐美、東南亞等地規模提升,泡泡瑪特多項精細化營運挖掘空間顯現,包括:(1)Local for global,4月組織架構調整後,公司向區域總部下放更多權限,本地化營運有望加速;(2)東南亞本地倉提升發貨時效性及利潤率,歐美地區有望推廣,該行看好海外營運利潤率的持續提升。
華泰證券表示,維持泡泡瑪特2025至2027年經調整淨利潤65.1億、89.6億、116.7億元人民幣預測(複合年均增長率為51%)。參考可比公司2025年平均市盈率(PE)38倍(前值:36.5倍),考慮到公司自第二季以來海外出圈進展順利,Labubu上新節奏不斷強化,IP在全球範圍內粉絲受眾空間打開,海外業務前景廣闊,中長期成長驅動的確定性增強,給予2025年58倍經調整市盈率(前值:42倍),並將目標價從219港元上調至300港元,維持「買入」評級。
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