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《大行》摩通:蔚來(NIO.US)首季業績好壞參半 上調全年銷量預測13%
阿思達克 06-05 11:05
摩根大通發表報告指,蔚來-SW(09866.HK)(NIO.US)首季業績好壞參半,毛利率略高於該行及市場預期,主要得益於其他服務的虧損縮窄;但新產品及渠道擴張致營運費用和行銷費用增加,致使淨利低於預期(比摩通預估低6%)。該行預計末季非公認會計原則(non-GAAP)營運利潤將實現收支平衡,受到強勁銷量增長及盈利能力改善的推動。此外,該行指,蔚來管理層強調公司成本削減措施以提升盈利能力。該行對此上調盈測以反映漸進改善趨勢,但注意到市場競爭環境嚴峻,該行對蔚來的毛利率及銷量預估仍低於管理層指引,對蔚來ADR維持「中性」評級,美股目標價4.1美元。 摩通表示,蔚來管理層強調其成本削減及組織重組措施,以提升營運效率。除優化蔚來及Onvo品牌的銷售團隊與聯合服務外,蔚來還重組了供應鏈團隊並整合了三大品牌的研發團隊,類似於近期吉利、極氪的整合模式。蔚來管理層預計今年研發費用將減少20%至25%,並預計第四季銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)佔收入比例降至10%。 報告指,蔚來計劃在Onvo品牌下推出兩款新車型(第三季推出L90,第四季推出L80),並在第四季對ES8進行改款。摩通引述蔚來管理層表示,至今年底總月銷量將達到5萬輛,這是第四季營運利潤收支平衡的關鍵驅動因素。摩通對蔚來2025年全年銷量預測上調約13%,從原先的28.2萬輛增至32萬輛,以反映今年迄今的動能及管理層評論。但摩通的預測仍低於管理層年初公佈的44萬輛指引。摩通的謹慎觀點反映了蔚來以至中國汽車市場整體面臨的競爭動態。
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