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《大行》高盛:5月中國官方及財新製造業PMI均低於50 顯示美關稅對製造業負面影響
阿思達克 06-03 15:43
5月財新中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)今早公佈,錄48.3遠低於市場預期的50.7,較4月下降2.1個百分點,爲自2024年10月來首次跌至臨界點以下。 高盛發表報告表示,儘管中美在日內瓦的貿易談判後降低了關稅,5月份財新製造業PMI從4月的50.4顯着下降至48.3(高盛預測50.7),與市場預期的上升相反。在主要分項指數中,產出分項指數下降幅度最大,其次是新訂單分項指數。中國國家統計局製造業PMI與財新製造業PMI之間的背離可能部分由於調查時間差異。財新PMI調查通常比國統局PMI調查更早進行,5月12日後降低的關稅影響可能尚未在財新PMI受訪者調查時顯現。 中國財新製造業PMI在5月顯着下降至48.3,低於4月的50.4,爲2022年9月以來的最低值,遠低於市場預期。在主要分項指數中,產出分項指數從51.6大幅下降至47.5,新訂單分項指數從50.5降至47.4,就業分項指數從49.0降至48.4。 供應商交貨時間分項指數從4月的49.7微升至5月的49.8。受訪企業表示,需求狀況惡化導致新業務流入近期收縮。在與貿易相關的分項指數中,5月新出口訂單分項指數從4月的47.5降至46.2,爲2023年7月以來的最低水平。庫存分項指數顯示庫存增加。原材料庫存分項指數從49.8升至50.1,成品庫存分項指數從49.6升至50.3。價格指標顯示5月通縮壓力加大。投入價格指數從4月的49.7降至48.8,產出價格指數從49.2降至48.6。 根據受訪企業的說法,原材料和能源成本降低支撐了投入價格的下降,企業將其轉嫁給客戶,同時激烈的競爭也壓制了銷售價格。5月國家統計局製造業PMI上升,而財新製造業PMI下降。兩者之間的背離可能部分由於調查時間差異。財新PMI調查通常比國統局PMI調查更早進行,5月12日後降低的關稅影響可能尚未在財新PMI受訪者調查時顯現。儘管如此,5月兩項製造業PMI均低於50,顯示美國關稅對製造業的負面影響。
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