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大行評級丨大摩:周大福因一個情境 股價或要跌10%以上
摩根士丹利給予周大福(1929.HK)目標價13港元,評級“增持”。大摩指出,該集團將於下週四(6月12日)公佈截至今年3月31日止全年業績,投資者將關注其派息比率及2026年度前景指引。大摩稱,周大福面對三個不同情境下,將有三個不同走向。情境1:末期息每股多過0.3港元,派息比率逾89%,對2026財政年度指引正面,如同店銷售將增長5%至10%、收入及經營溢利料增長逾5%,開店增長持平,潛在股價升幅5%至10%,相應預期股價12至13港元。情境2:末期股息料派0.25-0.3港元,派息比率約80%-89%,同店銷售增長將大幅轉爲正數、沒有管理層指引,但淨關閉門店數量將低於2025財年、收入及經營溢利料持平,潛在股價升幅0%-5%,相應預期股價11-12港元。情境3:末期息每股少於0.25港元,派息比率少於80%,同店銷售將跌5%-10%,沒管理層最新指引、收入及經營溢利將跌少於5%,潛在股價跌約10%,相應預期股價低於10港元。該集團股價今年以來累升約80%,同期恆生指數漲16%,由於扭勢可能推遲,股價預計將下跌10%以上。
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