《大行》交銀國際:港股基本面回歸中性偏積極 聚焦科技創新、高股息及政策紅利主線 「6月研選」加入中國電力(02380.HK)
交銀國際發表港股策略報告,內外形勢迎積極變化,港股延續修復趨勢。近期全球關稅形勢顯著緩和,特別是在中美日內瓦經貿會談後,進一步推動全球風險情緒回升。港股市場自「對等關稅」衝擊後呈現持續修復態勢,從低點穩步回升,並已完全收回「對等關稅」衝擊造成的失地。從驅動因素分析,港股修復主要歸因於風險溢價的顯著回落,而無風險利率或企業盈利預期均變動不大。
與此同時,南向資金延續淨買入,也為港股市場提供了強有力支撐,有效平抑了市場波動。基本面預期回歸中性偏積極。中國出口保持韌性及中美5月經貿會談所取得的成果也有望能盡量減少外需的不確定性,利於基本面的修復和鞏固。而內需層面,近期政策信號積極。4月中央政治局會議釋放積極信號,隨後金融監管部門迅速落地一系列支持政策,包括人民銀行全面降準降息的組合拳,釋放了明確的流動性寬鬆信號。疊加短期仍有匯金版「平準基金」托底支持,將顯著提振市場信心。
交銀國際提及,內需政策對沖,後續政策效應有望不斷釋放。面對外部環境的不確定性,中國正加速推進內需對衝政策組合,形成多層次、全方位的政策體系。消費端,「以舊換新」持續推進;投資端,政府債發行提速,有望盡快形成實物工作量。內外形勢的積極變化,也有望扭轉此前市場對關稅影響所造成的預期,基本面預期回歸中性偏積極,次季度經濟有望穩中有進,利好企業盈利預期的持續改善。
建議仍聚焦三條主線:(1)繼續看好科技創新主線,包括科技硬件(半導體、新能源汽車產業鏈等)、互聯網科技(人工智能、雲計算等領域),有望受益於政策支持和需求增長雙重驅動。(2)高股息主線。在外部不確定性仍相對較高,以及流動性寬鬆和低利率環境下,高股息吸引力將繼續提升,關注銀行、公用事業和電信營運商板塊。(3)政策紅利主線。降準、降息環境下,券商、保險等金融服務機構將直接受益於市場活躍度提升和風險偏好回升,以及有望受益於消費支持政策持續落地的港股優質消費龍頭。
該行「6月研選」加入中國電力(02380.HK),現表列同下:
股份|評級|目標價(港元)
奇富科技(QFIN.US)|買入|58美元
領展(00823.HK)|買入|47.7元
韋爾股份(603501.SH)|買入|180元人民幣
阿里-W(09988.HK)|買入|114元
騰訊(00700.HK)|買入|604元
小鵬-W(09868.HK)|買入|134.69元
康方生物(09926.HK)|買入|115元
*中國電力(02380.HK)|買入|3.77元
*為新加入
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