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《大行》高盛料即制飲品受惠內地外賣平臺補貼計劃 升蜜雪冰城(02097.HK)古茗(01364.HK)目標價
高盛發表報告指,自4月11日京東(09618.HK)宣佈100億元人民幣外賣補貼計劃以來,伴隨餓了麼和美團(03690.HK)加大補貼與投資力道,該行覆蓋的即制飲品公司股價平均上升39%。根據報道與渠道調查,京東外賣訂單中有很大一部分流向即制飲品品牌,其中瑞幸和庫迪咖啡的訂單量位居前列,其次是一些大型即製茶飲品牌。 渠道調查顯示,參與促銷活動的門店訂單量可能翻倍以上,但影響程度因品牌參與策略、價格定位和外送佔比而異。整體上,參與促銷活動的品牌應能受惠,因訂單總量增長足以抵消外送單位經濟的減弱。該行認爲優質企業如蜜雪冰城(02097.HK)、古茗(01364.HK)和百勝中國(09987.HK)仍將是長期贏家。 該行根據外送補貼的推動和年內趨勢,上調了古茗和蜜雪冰城的盈利預測,並提高了兩者的估值倍數,反映其穩健的短期盈利前景以及與其他新消費品牌的交易倍數一致。古茗2025至2027年盈利預測被上調5%至9%,反映更快的門店擴張速度以及更強的門店商品成交額增長,2026年預計市盈率從20倍上調至26倍,仍較即製茶飲行業龍頭蜜雪冰城低約20%。目標價由21元升至29.2元,維持「買入」評級。 高盛上調蜜雪冰城2025至2027年盈利預測2%至3%,反映更快的門店擴張以及中國市場門店商品成交額的穩健增長。2026年預計市盈率從26倍上調至32倍,目標價由484元升至597元,維持「買入」評級。其他餐飲消費股目標價詳見另表。
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