《大行》匯豐研究:HIBOR下跌 低利率利好港股 特別是地產及高息板塊
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,HIBOR近期跌至2022年以來的最低水平,並接近三年低位。低利率環境降低企業和消費者的借貸成本,特別是按揭還款負擔減輕。歷史數據顯示,低利率通常利好香港股市,尤其是地產、公用事業和房地產投資信託基金(REITs)等板塊。
報告指,短期內,受套利交易及金管局為維護港元兌美元聯繫匯率而進行的入市干預影響,HIBOR可能回升,導致股市短期回調。但長遠而言,美國聯儲局減息及本地流動性充裕將令HIBOR保持在較低水平,支持股市表現。
地產市場影響方面,報告指,低利率鼓勵住宅物業買家入市,支持住宅市場復甦。但零售及商業物業因需求疲弱而持續面臨挑戰。至於對銀行及高息依賴企業,持續低HIBOR可能壓縮銀行及依賴利息收入的企業盈利,對股價構成壓力。
匯豐環球研究料,內地家庭持有大量現金,預計將繼續增加對香港股市的投資,成為市場的重要推動力。港股平均股息率達5%,加上0.8%的股票回購,總現金回報接近6%,對收益型投資者具吸引力。
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