《大行》摩通升中通快遞(02057.HK)評級至「增持」 風險回報改善
摩根大通發表研究報告指,日前與一眾快遞公司交流,了解到市場競爭激烈,或推動下半年行業整合,而中通快遞(02057.HK)(ZTO.US)作為領先市場參與者,預期可望在行業整合中受惠。
恆指公司早前宣布納入中通快遞為恆生指數成份股,將於6月6日收市後生效,摩通預期「染藍」將增加中通股份流動性並改善投資者情緒。年初至今行業快遞單價按年回落約9%,對「通達系」快遞企業構成重大壓力,摩通預測若單價進一步下跌3%至5%,部分企業可能面臨虧損,相應將中通2025財年Non-GAAP淨利潤預測下調12%,仍預期2026至2027年盈利年均複合增長率可達約15%。
考慮到風險回報狀況改善,摩通將中通港股及美股評級,均由「中性」上調至「增持」,將中通快遞(02057.HK)目標價由179元下調至164港元,將中通快遞(ZTO.US)目標價由23美元降至21美元,續按現金流折現率作估值。
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