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"斷供"傳聞衝擊,EDA全線大爆發,國產替代空間有多大?

美國擬對華斷供?半導體設計行業迎重大沖擊。

今日,EDA概念股集體走強,概倫電子升超11%,華大九天、廣立微升超10%,申通地鐵10CM升停,一博科技、安路科技升超3%,台基股份升超2%。

約8成國產替代空間

最新,英國《金融時報》引述消息人士報道稱,美國總統特朗普政府將要求一些當地企業,停止向中國出口與半導體設計技術相關的軟件。

受影響的企業主要是擁有電子設計自動化(Electronic Design Automation,EDA)技術的大型公司,包括Cadence、Synopsys、Siemens EDA等,三間公司合共佔中國EDA市場約8成。

Synopsys報吿稱,2024 財年,中國市場的銷售額接近10億美元,約佔其總收入的16%。

Cadence表示,來自中國市場的銷售額為5.5億美元,佔其總收入的12%。

受此影響,Cadence股價收盤下跌10.67%,Synopsys股價下跌9.64%。

美國商務部還表示,正在審查對中國具有戰略意義的出口,並指出“在某些情況下,商務部在審查期間暫停了現有的出口許可證或施加了額外的許可要求”。

行業掀起併購大潮

EDA是指利用計算機輔助設計軟件,來完成芯片的功能設計、綜合、驗證、物理設計等流程的設計方式,被譽為“芯片之母”。

全球的EDA市場高度集中,被Synopsys、Cadence、Siemens EDA三大巨頭壟斷。

我國情況類似,市場被國際三大巨頭壟斷,目前的國產化率不足2%,具有較大的國產替代空間。

另據中國半導體行業協會預測,2025年中國EDA市場規模將達到184.9億元。

與此同時,EDA企業正在加速收併購整合,完善產品線佈局,構築全流程公司。

年初至今,國內的兩大EDA龍頭華大九天、概倫電子紛紛宣佈募資收購。

3月31日,華大九天公吿,計劃通過發行股份及支付現金的方式購買芯和半導體100%股份。

收購完成後,華大九天將補齊多款關鍵核心EDA工具,有助於打造全譜系全流程能力。

4月12日,概倫電子公吿,計劃通過發行股份及支付現金的方式取得鋭成芯微100%股權、納能微45.64%股權。

收購完成後,概倫電子能夠將EDA工具與IP核進行深度整合,這是經國際EDA巨頭Synopsys和Cadence驗證後的發展路徑。

併購大潮疊加國產替代的廣闊空間,EDA短期內有望迎來一波行情。

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