穆迪確認香港「Aa3」評級 展望升至「穩定」
評級機構穆迪將香港信用評級的展望從「負面」調整為「穩定」,同時確認其「Aa3」本地及外幣長期發行人評級、外幣高級無抵押評級,以及(P)「Aa3」本地及外幣高級無抵押中期票據(MTN)計劃評級。
穆迪認為,香港的信用狀況可能對全球貿易緊張局勢和貿易增長放緩的時期具有韌性。穩定展望還反映了穆迪的評估,即香港的政策框架,結合其經濟和財務狀況的實力,將保持其信用可靠性,即使中國內地政府的評級面臨下行壓力,且壓力可能比穆迪先前評估的更大。
確認香港「Aa3」評級納入了穆迪對其顯著信用優勢的評估,包括高收入和競爭力經濟、充足的財政和外部緩衝,以及有效的貨幣和財政政策的良好記錄。這些優勢繼續為其應對衝擊和長期趨勢提供韌性,包括人口老齡化、中國經濟增長放緩以及全球持續的地緣政治不確定性。香港的「Aa3」評級還考慮了與中國的經濟、財政和制度聯繫,這可能使香港的評級在可預見的未來不超過中國主權評級兩個級別。
香港的本地貨幣評級上限保持不變,為Aaa,與主權評級的三級差距反映了香港經濟中政府影響較小、財政政策審慎且可預測、經濟監管有效,以及強勁的國際收支狀況,這些因素抵消了政治風險。香港的外幣評級上限亦保持不變,為「Aaa」,與本地貨幣評級上限無差距,反映了高度的政策有效性和開放的資本賬戶。
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