《大行》美银证券降雅迪控股(01585.HK)目标价至17元 今年首五月销量略低于预期
美银证券发表报告,指据多次渠道调查显示,雅迪控股(01585.HK)在2025年前五个月实现批发量710万至720万辆,较2023年前五个月增长约10%,但略低于其2025年上半年900万辆的销售目标,主要原因包括:(1)4月中国南方天气条件不佳;(2)雅迪可能在6月给予经销商更多库存补货的灵活性。该行现预计雅迪在2025年上半年实现880万辆的销量,在下半年实现820万辆的销量。
美银证券表示,由于4月销量略低于预期,导致固定成本分摊增加,该行认为雅迪4月的每车净利润较2025年第一季度下降。尽管如此,该行预计5月、6月及2025年第三季度的盈利能力将改善,主要受以下因素支持:(1)5月推出的Guan S车型;(2)2025年第三季度将根据新国标推出的新车型(简化版)。在2025年第四季度,由于季节性因素和新标准过渡,盈利能力可能相对较弱。考虑到上述因素,该行将雅迪2025至2026年预计每股盈利预测分别下调2%及3%,并将目标价从17.4港元下调至17港元。该行重申「买入」评级,因该行相信雅迪在2025年具备良好前景,并在长期内有望获得市场份额增长。
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