郭家耀:聯儲「放鷹」美股急挫 港股料20,000點水平遇較大阻力
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週三(18日)顯着下滑,聯儲局一如市場預期降息四分一釐,但主席鮑威爾在記者會表達鷹派言論,官員對明年減息步伐預期明顯放慢,大市高開後反覆下挫,並以接近低位收市,三大指數均錄得明顯跌幅。美元走勢向好,美國十年期債息上升至4.52釐水平,金價及油價走勢受壓。港股預託證券普遍偏軟,預料大市早段跟隨外圍低開。
內地股市昨日造好,滬綜指高開高走,收市上升0.6%,滬深兩市成交額進一步縮減。
港股昨日走勢窄幅徘徊,指數受制兩萬點關口,整體成交亦繼續清淡。聯儲局減息空間下降,影響外圍市場表現,美元保持堅挺,不利人民幣走勢,港股跟隨外圍調整,預料指數在20,000點水平有較大阻力,下方支持在19,000點附近。
另國家統計局日前公佈11月份全國規模以上工業增加值按年增長5.4%,較上月加快0.1個百分點,符合市場預期。首11月規模以上工業增加值按年增長5.8%。11月份社會消費品零售總額4.38萬億元人民幣,按年增長3%,低於市場預期。首11月社會消費品零售總額44.27萬億元人民幣,按年增長3.5%。首11月,全國固定資產投資46.58萬億元人民幣,按年增長3.3%,遜於市場預期。分領域看,基礎設施投資按年增長4.2%,製造業投資增長9.3%,房地產開發投資下降10.4%。首11月,全國城鎮調查失業率平均值爲5.1%,比上年同期下降0.1個百分點。單計11月份,全國城鎮調查失業率爲5%,與上月持平。31個大城市城鎮調查失業率爲5%,與上月持平。國統局表示, 11月份存量政策和增量政策組合效應繼續釋放,國民經濟運行總體平穩、穩中有進,積極變化進一步增多。但也要看到,外部環境更加錯綜複雜,國內需求不足,部分企業生產經營困難,經濟持續回升向好基礎仍待鞏固。下階段要堅持穩中求進工作總基調,完整準確全面貫徹新發展理念,加快構建新發展格局,紮實推進高質量發展,進一步全面深化改革,擴大高水平對外開放,擴大國內需求,穩定預期、激發活力,推動經濟持續回升向好,確保全年經濟社會發展主要目標任務順利實現。內地宏觀經濟表現仍然反覆,市場期望更多具體政策落實,刺激消費及投資回暖。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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